The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average polls of swing states currently show former President Trump leading in all seven, a feat that has not been achieved by any candidate previously. These states, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are considered the most crucial for determining the next U.S. president.
On Thursday afternoon, the last of these swing states, Wisconsin, moved into Trump’s column, completing his lead in all seven. If the election were held today, and RCP polling averages accurately reflected the outcome, Trump would defeat incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris with a near-electoral landslide of 312 to 226 electoral votes.
While Trump’s leads are slim in these states—Michigan: +0.9; Nevada: +0.5; Pennsylvania: +0.5; Wisconsin: +0.1; Arizona: +1.1; Georgia: +0.9; North Carolina: +1.0—the average and trends show a positive trajectory for Trump. Two weeks ago, Harris was leading in the swing states on average, but this lead has been erased by Trump’s campaign discipline, JD Vance’s strong debate performance against Tim Walz, Kamala Harris’s indecisiveness, and the evolving political landscape that seems to be favoring Trump.
Harris is struggling as a retail campaigner, and her choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz over Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate has further weakened her chances. Had she chosen Shapiro, who is also more intelligent and less peculiar than Walz, the race might have been very different. However, Shapiro is Jewish, and Kamala’s base holds anti-Semitic sentiments.
Kamala Harris appears to be suffering from “Hillary Clinton Syndrome,” with an unusually light campaign schedule so close to the election. Additionally, a narrowing has occurred in the national race, with Trump leading in two of the five most recent polls, while Harris leads in two others, and one is tied.
Believing that today’s polls may be undercounting Trump voters by half as much as they did in 2016 and 2020 suggests a potential landslide victory for the former president. The only thing that could shift this momentum would be an unexpected event or significant announcement, but with no debates, conventions, or major announcements on the horizon, Trump remains in a strong position to maintain his lead.
Further damaging Harris’s image was her disastrous Fox News interview on Wednesday night, which displayed a haughty and evasive demeanor unappealing to independent voters. This raises concerns for Kamala’s campaign as there is currently no event on the election schedule that could create a turning point in the race.