The latest Morning Consult poll has revealed a shift in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race, with Republican Bernie Moreno leading Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown by 1 percentage point among likely voters. Published on Thursday, the survey shows Morneo at 47 percent support and Brown following at 46 percent. The poll sampled 1,243 likely Ohio voters from October 6-15, according to FiveThirtyEight. However, the aggregator did not include Morning Consult’s margin of error.
Moreno’s lead has grown since the last September 9-18 Morning Consult poll, where he was at 44 percent and Brown held a 2 percentage point advantage at 46 percent. Another August 30 to September 8 Morning Consult poll showed Brown with a 3-point lead over Moreno, who had 43 percent support.
The survey also highlights former President Donald Trump’s strong standing in Ohio, leading Kamala Harris by seven points. Among respondents, 52 percent support Trump and 45 percent back Harris. This latest poll comes on the heels of a private polling memo from the National Republican Senatrorial Committee (NRSC), which found Moreno with a 2-point edge over Brown at 45 to 43 percent. The NRSC memo also indicated Trump had an 11-point lead over Harris in Ohio.
Ohio’s Senate race is considered one of the most closely watched and consequential U.S. Senate races this cycle, with many speculating it could be the best pick-up opportunity for Republicans since solidifying itself as a red state. In recent elections, Republicans have dominated Democrats in the state, including in the 2016 presidential race, the 2020 presidential race, and all statewide races during the 2022 midterms.
If Republicans can protect their vulnerable seats in Texas and Florida while flipping blue seats in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio red, this could give the GOP a 52-seat majority before considering other tight Senate races, such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Maryland, and Nevada.