Former President Donald Trump is up three points in the swing state of Pennsylvania, according to a survey from Rasmussen Reports released Monday. The survey asked respondents, “If the 2024 Presidential election were held today, and the candidates were Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump, who would you vote for?” Across the board, 50% of likely voters said they would support Trump, compared to 47% who said Harris, and two percent who remain unsure. Notably, Trump has the clear edge among independents in the state, as 47% said they would support Trump, followed by 40% who said they would support Harris – a difference of seven percentage points.
The survey also showed Trump with a higher favorable rating than Harris – 51% viewing him either very or somewhat favorably compared to 48% who said the same of the vice president. Additionally, a plurality of likely voters in the Keystone State – 31% – consider illegal immigration the most important issue for the next president to solve, followed by 27% who said rising prices and 24% who said protecting democracy. When asked which issues are the most important to them in general, a plurality, 33%, said the economy, followed by 21% who said border security and 17% who said abortion.
The survey was taken October 9-13 among 1,072 Pennsylvania likely voters. It has a +/- 3 percent margin of error. James Blair, who is running political operations for the Trump campaign, explained during an interview on Breitbart News Saturday that Trump is in a “very good position” in battleground states. Democrats, he added, are showing signs that they are very nervous about the outlook in Pennsylvania.
The polling looks strong there, way ahead of where we were. And, you know, a canary in the coal mine, I think again, is voter registration, that electorate has moved four points to the right. I mean, it was about … 685,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans four years ago,” he said. That’s been cut down to, like, 320,000 and actually, if you look at the active voters, that the gap is even narrower,” he continued, adding that the eligible electorate has “shifted fully four points to the right in Pennsylvania.” Mail ballots in the Keystone State, he added, are down “by about 30 percent compared to four years ago in terms of raw number of requests.
Official results showed President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by less than two percentage points.