Five Democrat Pennsylvania counties have turned majority Republican since the 2020 election, according to political expert Seth Keshel who released voter registration data on Thursday. The finding suggests that former President Donald Trump may have a stronger chance of winning the Keystone State in the 2024 election than he did in 2020. It also serves as an additional indication of the ongoing political realignment in America under Trump and the successful efforts by Republican grassroots organizations to shift the state towards red.
Keshel’s analysis shows that voter registration data from Pennsylvania in 2024 shifted Republican in 63 out of the state’s 67 counties compared with the 2020 election results. In 2020, Democrats held a majority of voter registrations in 18 counties; four years later, that number shrank to 13, representing a difference of five counties.
The counties that have flipped Republican are located just outside larger Pennsylvania cities in both the East and West parts of the state.
Beaver: D+6.0% to R+2.5% (West of Pittsburgh.
Berks: D+2.1% to R+2.5% (West of Allentown.
Bucks: D+2.0% to R+0.5% (Southeast of Allentown.
Fayette: D+6.5% to R+9.2% (South of Pittsburgh.
Luzerne D=9.1% to R+0.2% (Southwest of Scranton.
Despite these shifts in voter registration, Republicans have faced recent election losses in the state. Trump lost Pennsylvania to President Joe Biden in 2020 by about 80,000 votes, while Sen. John Fetterman (D) defeated Republican Dr. Oz by approximately 263,000 votes in 2022. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) also beat the GOP’s Douglas Mastriano by 790,000 votes in 2022.
In response to these losses, the grassroots organization Citizens Alliance launched an initiative in 2023 known as “Pennsylvania Chase” aimed at increasing Republican voter registration and improving mail-in voting results. PA Chase Chief Strategist Justin Greiss told Breitbart News that the organization has been targeting Bucks County, which has Democrats on edge.
While it remains to be seen if these shifts in voter registration will translate into electoral victories for Republicans in Pennsylvania, they do suggest a potential change in political dynamics within the state and a possible increase in Trump’s chances of winning the Keystone State in 2024.