Recent Rasmussen Reports poll findings reveal that the majority of prospective U.S. voters believe there will be another assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump before the upcoming Election Day. The first alleged attempt occurred on July 13 at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where Thomas Matthew Crooks fired a shot into Trump’s right ear while he was addressing the crowd, resulting in a bloodied face for Trump. Another supposed attempt took place on September 15 when Ryan Wesley Routh was apprehended pointing a gun from the bushes at Trump International Golf Course in West Palm Beach, Florida. The Secret Service and the FBI have faced intense scrutiny for their handling of both incidents.
The poll asked respondents, “A man was recently charged in connection with an apparent assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump. How likely is it that there will be more assassination attempts against Trump between now and Election Day?” The results showed that 65 percent believe another attack on Trump is “likely,” including 32 percent who think it is “very likely.” Conversely, 21 percent do not believe such an attempt is imminent, while 14 percent remain unsure.
Across all political categories, majorities believe there is at least a “somewhat likely” chance that Trump will face more assassination attempts before the election. This includes 75 percent of Republicans, 56 percent of Democrats, and 64 percent of unaffiliated voters. Respondents were also asked to assess whether those attempting to assassinate Trump are mentally ill or motivated by the rhetoric of his political foes. Almost half (49 percent) of respondents believe that would-be assassins are motivated by the words of Trump’s detractors.
This survey found that among those who think another assassination attempt is “very likely,” 63 percent believe the would-be assassins are inspired by the rhetoric of Trump’s enemies. Political affiliation also influenced respondents’ beliefs, with Republicans (63 percent) and unaffiliated voters (53 percent) more likely than Democrats (33 percent) to attribute extreme anti-Trump rhetoric as a catalyst for assassination attempts against the former president.
The Rasmussen poll surveyed 1,114 likely U.S. voters between September 18-19 and September 22, 2024. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.