A J.L. Partners election model has shown a significant increase in Donald Trump’s chances of defeating Kamala Harris, with a probability spread of up to ten points. Since July when Harris joined the 2024 White House race, her so-called honeymoon period appears to have ended as the model found Trump’s likelihood of winning increased by four points since Monday and nine points since the debate.
The election forecast was simulated around 8,000 times, with a probability calculated for each candidate winning a state, then determining the overall probability they would win the Electoral College. Data analyst at J.L. Partners, Callum Hunter, believes Trump could open an even wider lead in the coming weeks, as current trends show things moving against Harris.
Although these election forecasts can sometimes be inaccurate, it is clear that Trump still faces significant challenges in overcoming his political opponents, including the administrative state, the media, and a Democrat candidate who seems to be willing to do anything necessary to secure their victory. As a result, many Republicans are urging for increased volunteer efforts to ensure election integrity and protect President Trump’s chances of success.