In the latest Rasmussen Reports weekly poll conducted between September 19th and 22nd to 25th on a sample size of 1,820 likely voters, former President Donald Trump continues to hold a two-point national lead over incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris. This marks the third consecutive week that Trump has maintained this lead over his political rival. The survey revealed that Trump enjoyed the support of 48% of respondents, while Harris secured 46.
The results indicate little change since the previous week’s poll, where Trump held a 49% to 47% lead over Harris. This consistency is also seen in data from September 12th, suggesting a stable trend in favor of the former president.
An analysis of internal data reveals that Trump has a strong lead among Hispanic voters, garnering 49% of their support compared to Harris’s 42. Furthermore, the former president is overperforming with black voters as well, receiving 28% of their votes as opposed to Harris’s 66%, which should be closer to a 15% to 85% split. Trump also holds a slim one-point advantage among younger voters aged 18-39 (46% to 45%) and enjoys a more significant four-point lead among those aged 40-64 (50% to 46. Seniors aged 65 and over remain evenly divided between the two candidates, with each securing 49% of their votes.
The overall margin is not significantly wider in favor of Trump due to a noticeable gender gap. Trump leads men by only seven points (44% to 51%) in this poll, whereas other surveys have shown a more considerable gap. However, Harris holds a narrow three-point lead among women (49% to 46%), which is also smaller than what has been observed in some previous polls.
In the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, Harris currently maintains a two-point advantage over Trump, with scores standing at 49.1% to 47.1. The three most recent polls, which include this Rasmussen survey, show the race either tied or with a one-point lead for Harris or a two-point lead for Trump.
The situation in 2016 saw Hillary Clinton leading Trump nationally by 2.3 points, and despite the narrow margin, he managed to secure a win. In contrast, Joe Biden led Trump in 2020 by 6.9 points, which resulted in a loss for the former president. However, when comparing the current polls to those of previous years, it appears that Kamala Harris is underperforming compared to both Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden.
This raises questions about whether pollsters are once again underestimating Trump’s voter base. Nonetheless, the electoral college race seems tighter than ever before. Currently, Pennsylvania appears to be a crucial battleground state, with five out of seven recent polls showing a tie between the two candidates. Trump has demonstrated his ability as a strong closer in previous elections and may do so again in this one. While Kamala Harris is backed by billions of dollars in corporate media propaganda, her competence as a political leader remains questionable.