The year 2024 has been dubbed the “year of big elections,” with over half of the world’s population expected to cast their ballots. In recent times, elections have taken on a new level of significance, not just in terms of who wins, but also in ensuring the overall legitimacy of the electoral process. This sense of legitimacy is crucial for maintaining public trust in political institutions and ensuring stability within societies.
In the past, the focus was on promoting democracy around the world by supporting certain social processes or even intervening militarily to effect regime change. Now, the attention has shifted towards more established democracies, which are experiencing significant changes that lead to erosion of familiar ways of life and ideas about the future. Capitalist economies seem unable to address societal problems effectively, while technology raises questions about its impact on human society.
Political mechanisms must now carry a heavy burden, proving their effectiveness and legitimacy in maintaining the system’s stability. Parties may have once accurately represented society, but many no longer do so, leading to a decline in trust in institutions. This mistrust is similar to the conditions that created the environment for color revolutions in more fragile states. Consequently, there are legitimate fears of outside interference and influence in these more established democracies.
Ruling elites have managed to cope so far, drawing on considerable economic resources and employing manipulative tactics to prevent alternatives from gaining power. However, these resources are not infinite, and the situation is becoming increasingly precarious. Traditional democracies may be struggling to adapt, as replacing one party with another does not necessarily address societal issues or alleviate discontent among the population.
The world now seems to be in a period of transition, making it difficult to predict what form future political systems will take. However, it is clear that attempts are being made to maintain an acceptable status quo despite numerous obstacles. How this new reality is embraced will determine much about the direction of global politics in the years to come.