In a recent report, Wall Street investment firm Goldman Sachs projected that Kamala Harris’s potential victory in the upcoming election would lead to increased immigration from around the world, particularly from low-wage legal and illegal migrants. This would be beneficial for investors as these new arrivals serve as wage-cutting workers, rent-inflating renters, and government-funded consumers, providing a significant boost to the economy.
According to the report, if Harris were to win the election, net immigration is expected to remain at around 1.5 million people per year, which is somewhat higher than the pre-pandemic trend of approximately 1 million legal immigrants. In contrast, if Trump secures a victory with a divided government, net immigration would likely fall to about 1.25 million people per year, while a Republican sweep in Congress could result in even more stringent enforcement resources and a significant reduction in net immigration to around 750,000 people per year.
Goldman Sachs also noted that President Donald Trump’s support for tariffs to protect U.S. industry, jobs, and science would have the largest short-term impact on the economy. However, reduced migration would come in a close second as the most significant change, especially after January 2026. The firm estimates that if Vice President Harris is elected, the contribution from immigration to labor force growth would be about 30,000 workers per month higher than in the Republican sweep scenario.
Despite the economic benefits of increased immigration, Goldman Sachs acknowledged that Trump’s populist policies could cost the nation around one-half of one percent of its total economy. If Trump wins with divided government or in a sweep, the negative impact on growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh any positive fiscal impulse, resulting in a peak hit to GDP growth of -0.5 percentage points in 2025, which would lessen by 2026.
While Goldman Sachs’ pro-migration stance has garnered criticism from populist critics on both the left and right, it is evident that increased immigration can have significant short-term benefits for Wall Street investors in the U.S. consumer economy. This strategy, however, comes at a considerable cost to ordinary Americans, as it reduces pressure on companies to invest in high-tech productivity and foreign trade.
Kamala Harris’s economic plan seems heavily reliant on increased immigration for growth, with few other strategies mentioned in the report. However, the Goldman Sachs report appears to underestimate the current pre-election inflow of migrants allowed by President Joe Biden’s border chief, Alejandro Mayorkas. In July alone, approximately 170,000 migrants were allowed through the southern border, amounting to an estimated 2 million people per year in addition to legal immigrants and short-term workers.
Since January 2021, Biden’s administration has imported almost 10 million legal and illegal migrants, which amounts to three migrants for every four American births during the same period. Mayorkas is actively working to expand the influx of foreign graduates, as these new arrivals are helping subordinate better-paid American professionals to investors’ executives.
Trump has promised to help Americans by shutting down the supply of southern migrants and deporting some of the estimated 15 million illegals in the country. However, he has also made and withdrawn various claims to donors since 2015 about importing more white-collar workers. Trump’s shifting stance on immigration issues has helped him maintain critical support from wealthy donors but has also narrowed his polling advantage on this issue.
In conclusion, Goldman Sachs’ report highlights the potential economic benefits of increased immigration for Wall Street investors in the U.S. consumer economy. While there are some short-term drawbacks associated with Trump’s populist policies and tighter immigration restrictions, it is clear that the influx of migrants can have significant long-term impacts on labor force growth and overall GDP growth. However, these benefits come at a considerable cost to ordinary Americans, who may face reduced opportunities for high-tech productivity and foreign trade investments as companies focus more on cheap labor from new immigrants.