Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the critical swing state of North Carolina, according to the most recent East Carolina University Center for Survey Research poll. Conducted from August 26th to August 28th, 2024, the survey shows Trump narrowly ahead of Harris by just one percentage point – 48% to 47.
In this particular survey, Harris holds a lead among independents, gaining 47% support compared to Trump’s 37. However, when it comes to issues important to American voters, these appear to be Trump’s strong suits. Thirty percent of North Carolina respondents identified inflation and/or the cost of living as “the most important issue in deciding their vote for the upcoming election.” It is worth mentioning that during her one-and-only sit-down interview as the Democrat candidate of choice for president, Harris characterized Bidenomics as “good work.” She also claimed she did not implement inflation fixes because the economy had to “recover” – a falsehood since the economy did not need rescuing when she took office.
Another 22% of respondents chose the economy as their top issue, followed by 14% who chose abortion, 13% who chose border security, four percent who chose “affordability of health care,” three percent who chose climate change, and three percent who chose violent crime or public safety.
Additionally, the survey found that most respondents – 52% – disapproved of President Joe Biden’s job performance, which could negatively impact Harris as she carries his policies.
The survey also examined confidence in the accuracy of the election results. Overall, 38% of registered voters in North Carolina have “a lot of confidence” that the 2024 election results will accurately reflect the votes cast, with another 40% reporting “some confidence,” and almost one-in-five (19%) expressing “no confidence.” Voters are divided on this question along party lines, with 67% of Democrats reporting “a lot of confidence” in the results while only 9% of Republicans answered similarly. About a third of Republicans (32%) have “no confidence” in the vote count compared to only 1% of Democrats who have no confidence.
The survey was conducted among 920 registered North Carolina voters and has a ± three percent margin of error. While this particular survey shows Trump with a smaller lead, it does align with the overall trend of Trump – not Harris – having an advantage in the Tar Heel State. For example, an On Point/Red Eagle Politics/SoCal Strategies poll released at the end of August showed Trump leading Harris by four percentage points – Trump with 50% support compared to Harris’s 46% support.