Despite Vice President Kamala Harris’s lead in the latest weekly survey conducted by The Economist/YouGov, Americans still believe that former President Donald Trump will win the election. This week’s survey shows a decrease in the gap between the two candidates – with Vice President Kamala Harris now leading Trump by just two percentage points, down from three last week.
The survey asked respondents to predict the outcome of the presidential election regardless of their personal preferences. According to the findings, 37% believe that Donald Trump will win, while 36% think that Kamala Harris will secure the victory. A significant 27% remain undecided. This is a notable shift from last week when respondents were divided – with 39% believing that Trump would win and the same percentage believing in a victory for Harris. At that time, 23% remained unsure about the outcome.
Overall, there has been a considerable change among all respondents over the past month. Around one month ago, 42% of survey participants expressed confidence that Trump would emerge victorious against Harris, compared to just 35% who believed in a win for Harris. Meanwhile, 23% were unsure about their predictions at the time.
A similar shift occurred three weeks ago, when Kamala Harris enjoyed a two-point lead over Trump, with 40% believing she would win and 38% predicting a victory for Trump. Nonetheless, a significant 22% remained uncertain about the outcome. Since then, respondents have remained split – but this week, Trump has edged ahead of Harris by a single percentage point, indicating that her “honeymoon period” could be coming to an end.
In addition to predicting the election results, the survey also asked participants which candidate they would prefer as president. Once again, Donald Trump took a one-point lead – with 47% of respondents expressing their preference for Trump over Harris, compared to 46% who prefer Kamala Harris. Trump holds a remarkable 12-point advantage among independent voters, with 49% of independents expressing a preference for Trump over Harris, while only 37% prefer Harris over Trump.
The survey was conducted between August 25 and August 27, 2024, among 1,555 U.S. adult citizens – long after the Democrat convention and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal from the race in favor of supporting Trump.