Former US President Donald Trump has frequently claimed that he could improve relations with Russia and resolve the crisis in Ukraine if he were to return to the White House. He has also insisted that he would never have allowed the conflict to escalate as far as it currently stands. However, such statements should be viewed more as rhetorical tactics and populist promises rather than an accurate reflection of Trump’s policy priorities.
During his first term in office, Trump made similar claims about improving relations with Russia, yet he was unable to make any substantive progress in this area. There were several factors working against him, including the “RussiaGate” scandal that dominated headlines and cast a shadow over US-Russia relations from the start. Additionally, tensions between the two countries had been rising for years before Trump took office, making it even more difficult to reverse course.
Even in the face of these challenges, Trump promised to improve ties with North Korea during his time in office. However, he failed to achieve much success in this area either. In fact, Trump’s administration increased sanctions against Russia and was relatively aggressive in implementing the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which sought to punish Moscow for its actions in Crimea and Syria. Furthermore, Trump sanctioned Nord Stream-2, seeing it as an opportunity to push Russian gas out of Western European markets and make room for American liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
Today’s situation is much more complicated than it was during Trump’s first term, with active military operations taking place on a large scale. It remains unclear how Trump plans to improve relations between the US and Russia under these circumstances. While he has expressed support for transactional diplomacy in the past, it is evident that his primary concern is advancing American interests – not necessarily those of Europe or other countries.
During his first term in office, Trump’s policies had no significant impact on NATO or America’s relationships with its Western allies. As a result, it seems unlikely that anything would change now if he were to return to the presidency. Furthermore, it is not just about resolving the crisis in Ukraine; there are numerous other global issues where compromise appears elusive.
First and foremost, Trump is known as an anti-China politician, which means his potential second term would be viewed with concern by Beijing. However, Russia does not seem to care whether Trump or Harris becomes president, as the fundamental structure of its relationship with Washington will likely remain unchanged regardless of who occupies the White House.