Former President Donald Trump is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris nationally by two percentage points according to a recent survey conducted by Daily Mail and J.L. Partners. This survey examines the race between Trump and Harris, who was selected as the Democratic Party’s top-of-the-ticket candidate without direct input from actual Democrat voters. Despite some Democrat leaders maintaining that this decision was made from the grassroots level, it is clear that the nomination of Harris has left many Democrats feeling left behind, including the 14 million who voted for President Joe Biden in the primary.
Polls have consistently shown Trump leading against Harris, with the former president garnering 43 percent support to Harris’s 41 percent. This two-point gap is outside the ± 3.1 percent margin of error, which has led to predictions that the election may be a close one in November. The Daily Mail cites another survey that indicates respondents view Trump as a more “strong” and “charismatic” candidate overall.
James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, stated that while Harris has made progress with younger voters, black voters, and independents, Trump continues to maintain a more energized base of support. Furthermore, he notes that Trump has held his position well with white, Hispanic, and older voters (over the age of 50. Johnson observes that “Harris’s biggest support remains relatively limited to 18 to 49-year-olds,” mainly due to Trump’s dominance in issues such as the economy and border security.
The survey comes as Donald Trump predicts that Kamala Harris’s honeymoon period, both in the polls and with the media, will eventually come to an end. Trump mentioned this during a press conference, stating that “the honeymoon period’s gonna end.” He further criticized Harris, calling her “incompetent” and pointing out her previous record as Governor of California and her role in the deteriorating conditions of San Francisco.
As of now, J.L. Partners surveyed 1,001 likely voters from August 7-11, 2024, for this report. The results reveal a tight race between Trump and Harris, with much of the outcome still uncertain.