Former President Donald Trump holds a three-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among registered voters, according to CNN polling conducted after President Joe Biden stepped aside. The poll is one of the first published surveys since Biden endorsed Harris for president. The June CNN poll had found Trump leading Harris by six points, reflecting what was described as a “honeymoon” period for Harris as the de facto nominee of the struggling Democrat party.
The latest poll, conducted between July 22-23 and sampled 1,631 voters with a 3-point margin of error, found Trump at 49% support and Harris at 46. The results suggest that Trump’s support among his strongest groups has remained steady even as his opponent changed. Sixty-seven percent of White voters without degrees support him over Harris, near-identical to his level of support against Biden (66. He continues to enjoy the support of a majority of men (53%, compared to 54% against Biden) and maintains the backing of about nine in ten Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (90% vs. Harris, compared to 89% against Biden.
Harris appeared to slightly improve upon Biden’s lead among voters aged 18-34 but not enough to overcome Trump’s gains with this demographic. The finding contradicts the Harris campaign’s claim that it has a path to victory due to her unique ability to galvanize young voters, according to a memo released on Wednesday. CNN’s poll conducted in June found Trump led Harris by six points, underscoring the “honeymoon” period Harris enjoys as the de facto nominee of the struggling Democrat party.
The poll found Trump’s support has not changed much since Harris entered the race: 67% of White voters without degrees support him over Harris, near-identical to his support against Biden (66. He continues to hold the support of a majority of men (53% versus Harris, it was 54% against Biden. And he maintains the support of about 9 in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (90% vs. Harris, 89% against Biden.
Harris appeared to slightly improve upon Biden’s lead among voters ages 18-34, but not enough to overcome Trump’s inroads with the demographic. The finding contradicts the Harris campaign’s claim that it has a path to victory due to Harris’s unique ability to galvanize the young vote, according to a memo released Wednesday.
In 2024, young voters are split (49-49 percent) between identifying as Republicans and Democrats. In 2020, according to Pew Research, 56 percent of young voters identified as Democrats, while 39 percent identified as Republicans.
In worse news for Harris, Democrats are split about whether she should continue the Biden-Harris administration’s policies. According to three sources in Harris’s world, she will not change her positions or distance herself from the Biden administration’s record on policy. By contrast, there’s little ideological divide on this question, with similar shares of self-described liberals (55%) and moderates or conservatives (51%) hoping to see the next nominee continue with Biden’s policies.