Former President Donald Trump may be on track to achieve the most significant political comeback in modern American politics, according to a recent Economist model forecast. The model assigned Trump a 66% chance of victory, while President Joe Biden’s odds were given at just 34.
This Economist model is updated daily with national polling data and economic indicators. In order to estimate the electoral vote totals, they run over 10,000 simulations of the election. The model has consistently placed Trump ahead of Biden since March when it began its simulation.
The largest difference between the two candidates’ chances occurred on June 12th. Trump had a 66% chance of winning, while Biden’s odds were at only 34. The model also assigned an electoral college tie a less than 1 in 100 chance of occurrence.
In addition to leading nationally, Trump is also ahead of Biden in the six swing states the Economist tracks: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. The model weighs Michigan (with a 14% chance) and Pennsylvania (at 24%) as having the highest likelihood of determining the election’s outcome.
According to the forecast, Trump is projected to win by a margin of +1 in Michigan and +2 in Pennsylvania. Despite being convicted in a Manhattan courthouse, Trump has maintained his lead over Biden. This model’s results are undoubtedly positive news for Trump’s chances in the upcoming election.