In a recent National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) polling memorandum, it has been revealed that Republican Senate candidates have the advantage in three critical states where they could potentially flip blue seats red. These developments are significant as Democrats currently hold a slim 51-49 seat majority in the Senate.
The NRSC memo shows Republicans leading in Montana, Ohio, and Wisconsin against Democratic incumbents. If West Virginia’s senate race goes to the Republicans, as anticipated, and the GOP candidates successfully defend their seats while winning these three races, they will have a minimum of 53 Senate seats.
In Montana, Republican nominee Tim Sheehy is comfortably eight points ahead of Sen. Jon Tester, leading with 50 percent to Tester’s 42 percent in the NRSC polling memo. Moreover, Sheehy’s favorability rating is +5 percentage points, while Tester’s is two points underwater.
In Ohio, Republican Bernie Moreno has a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) with the election just three weeks away. Former President Donald Trump also has an 11-point advantage in the presidential race. According to NRSC Executive Director Jason Thielman, this is the first time the Senate GOP’s campaign arm has shown Moreno leading.
The memo indicates that Republican businessman Eric Hovde has a 48 percent to 47 percent edge on Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) in a head-to-head match-up in Wisconsin. This marks the first time Hovde has been ahead in NRSC polling, according to the memo. In a ballot that includes third-party candidates, they tie at 46 percent.
The Michigan and Pennsylvania races are neck and neck. Former House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-MI) is tied with Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) at 48 percent apiece in a head-to-head race, though Slotkin takes a 49 percent to 48 percent edge on the full ballot. In Pennsylvania, Republican businessman Dave McCormick is one point back of Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA. McCormick garners 43 percent to Casey’s 44 percent.
If Republicans win all five of these races in Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, they would have control of at least 55 Senate seats, assuming they also win West Virginia and defend everything else – mainly Florida and Texas. Furthermore, GOP Senate nominees in the southwest swing states of Arizona and Nevada are within striking distance of their Democratic opponents, according to the memo.
As November’s election day approaches, it remains to be seen whether Republicans can successfully capitalize on these opportunities and secure a stronger position in the Senate.