A recent Wall Street Journal poll reveals that former President Donald Trump holds a slim lead over Vice President Kamala Harris by one point in the national standings, while the swing states remain undecided and too close to call. The survey indicates that both candidates have narrow leads in their respective contested states; however, no advantage is greater than 2 percentage points, except for Trump’s 5-point lead in Nevada.
The Wall Street Journal reported that across a pool of 4,200 swing-state voters, Trump garnered 46% support, while Harris secured 45. This suggests that the race remains too close to call, with every state and thus the presidential election at stake. If Harris were to win in the states where she currently leads, she would achieve a narrow majority in the Electoral College.
According to the poll results, by a margin of 10 percentage points, more respondents believe Trump is better suited to handle the economy, which has been cited as the most crucial issue for voters when choosing a candidate. Additionally, by 16 points, voters express their preference for Trump’s handling of immigration and border security, ranking second among concerns raised by survey participants.
The Wall Street Journal suggests that Harris’ path to victory could potentially lie in Sun Belt states such as Arizona, where the influx of liberal voters from the Midwest and the Northeast has impacted local politics alongside continued immigration from abroad.
An interesting aspect of the poll is the contrasting opinions on national and local economies; while most respondents described the national economy as bad, they considered their local economies to be in good standing. Furthermore, more voters characterized Trump as “extreme” (48%) compared to Harris (38%), which may pose challenges for the Vice President.
Notably, President Joe Biden led northern industrial states by over five points at this time in 2020; however, Harris seems to be struggling in those regions. Following the Wall Street Journal poll, another NBC poll released on Sunday also showed Trump with a narrow one-point lead.