Republican Senate nominee Bernie Moreno is now neck-and-neck with incumbent Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in Ohio, eroding the Democrats’ once-substantial lead after weathering a grueling primary and tens of millions in attack ads from Brown and other Democratic groups. An internal poll conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has tied Moreno with Brown at 46% each; in April, Moreno was down seven points to Brown.
In September alone, Republicans spent $91 million in support of Moreno, outpacing Democrats’ $50 million. This expenditure seems to be yielding results, as the NRSC polls show Brown’s approval and disapproval numbers are now dead even at 45%, compared to 49% and 36% in April when he held his current lead over Moreno.
Moreno’s trajectory is similar to that of Sen. JD Vance (R-OH), who emerged from another tough primary behind his Democrat opponent but steadily gained support before ultimately defeating former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) by 6.5 points. Republicans are encouraged by the polling and spending trends in Ohio, with one GOP operative telling The Hill, “Brown is going to get massively outspent down the stretch, and the polling is already moving against him.
Moreno has a strategic advantage that Vance did not have: Donald Trump’s name will appear on the ballot. Trump won Ohio by eight points in both 2016 and 2020, and he is expected to carry the state again, potentially driving more of his supporters to the polls.
After lighting up the airwaves with nearly $50 million dollars, Sherrod Brown is stuck at under 50% in every single poll,” Reagan McCarthy, a Moreno campaign spokesperson, told The Hill. While Brown fundraises with Hollywood elites, Bernie is crisscrossing Ohio and earning every vote.
In addition to Ohio, Democrats are also defending their positions in two other red states: Montana, where incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy by seven points; and West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) has announced his retirement and the state is likely to fall to Republicans.
Republicans are also running strong in swing states, bolstered by Trump’s support. They aim to flip seats held by incumbents, such as those in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada, and capture open seats in Michigan and several other states.