In the midst of a neck-and-neck presidential race, the slightest shift in polling numbers can feel monumental. For instance, in a recent North Carolina poll, former President Donald Trump led by just one point last month; now he has expanded his lead to two points. The change is enough to make anyone want a drink.
East Carolina University polled 1,005 likely North Carolina voters between September 23-26 and found Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by two points, with the former president garnering 49% of the support compared to Harris’ 47. At the end of August, Trump led Harris by a single point, 48% to 47. In the RealClearPolitics average poll of North Carolina state polls, Trump currently leads by just 0.6 points; in comparison, on this same day in 2016, he led Hillary Clinton by an average of 0.3 points before ultimately winning the state by a fairly comfortable margin of 3.6 points. In 2020, Joe Biden led in North Carolina by an average of 0.5 points; Trump would go on to win the state by 1.3 points.
Looking at the overall polling data over the weekend and today, Trump seems to have a small but noticeable advantage. Of the 11 most recent polls from Pennsylvania – a state that could potentially decide the election – Harris has only led in one, while Trump has led in four, with six tied.
In addition to this, there’s no denying that Kamala had a tough weekend, which has not yet been reflected in the polls. Her ill-advised decision to visit the southern border after years of ignoring it is likely to be remembered as a fatal error if she loses the election. The fact that up to 650,000 of the ten-plus million migrants allowed into the country by the Biden-Harris administration are criminals and criminal suspects will not help her cause either; more than 13,000 of them are murderers on the loose.
Trump’s claims that foreign countries were releasing their prisoners to send bad actors into America under Kamala’s watch do not seem far-fetched, as these individuals are welcomed with free rent, healthcare, and a monthly allowance – benefits most Americans can only dream of. It remains to be seen how the Biden-Harris administration’s inaction regarding the recent flooding in western North Carolina will affect voters in this crucial battleground state.
With both campaigns vying for every available vote, any misstep or momentary advantage could prove decisive in determining the outcome of the presidential race. As the campaign trail continues to heat up, both sides will undoubtedly be watching the polls closely and adjusting their strategies accordingly.