Former President Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in the swing state of Pennsylvania, according to a recent poll from the Trafalgar Group. The survey, conducted between September 26-29 and involving 1,090 registered voters, put Trump ahead by just over two points at 47.5%, compared to Harris’s 45.3. Although the margin of error was +/- 2.9%, this still puts the two candidates in a virtual tie, rendering Pennsylvania as a tossup state.
In the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race, Democrat Bob Casey leads his Republican challenger Dave McCormick with 47.4% to 45.6. These results are also within the margin of error, making it difficult to determine an outright winner in that contest as well.
Pennsylvania is one of the most challenging battleground states for former President Trump, along with Michigan and Georgia. Understanding the state’s attitudes towards the candidates has proven to be elusive. A recent Spotlight PA/MassINC poll showed Kamala Harris leading by five points in the crucial swing state. However, Trafalgar Group’s findings suggest that Trump may have an edge over Harris in Pennsylvania.
Conversely, a New York Times poll last week put Trump ahead of Harris in the sun belt states of Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. In Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), who is also running for the U.S. Democrat Senate nomination, warned that Vice President Kamala Harris may be “underwater” in her race against former President Donald Trump. Speaking at a fundraiser last week attended by Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), Slotkin expressed concerns about Harris’s performance in Michigan, which is another swing state.
As the election season progresses, these closely contested races are likely to remain tight and unpredictable. The outcome of key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia will be crucial in determining the overall direction of the race for both the presidency and control of the U.S. Senate.