Former President Donald Trump has shown a lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in recent New York Times/Siena College presidential election polling data released on Monday. In Arizona, Trump surged ahead by five points (50-45 percent), while he maintained a four point lead in Georgia and held steady in North Carolina.
These results are significant as political experts believe that seven key states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina—will decide the presidential election. If Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, Kamala Harris’s path to obtain 270 electoral votes becomes almost impossible.
In Arizona, Trump’s surge can be attributed to a ten-point increase since August, with Vice President Kamala Harris struggling among Latino voters. However, 10% of these voters remain undecided. President Joe Biden won the state in 2020 with about 10,000 votes.
In North Carolina, Trump is up two points (49-47 percent), a four-point swing from his August trailings. The race remains within the margin of error (4.2 percentage points. President Trump won the state in 2020 by under 75,000 votes.
In Georgia, Trump maintained a four-point lead (45-49 percent), the same margin he held in August. His four-point lead remains within the margin of error (4.6 percent. Biden won Georgia in 2020 by about 11,000 votes.
The polls sampled 713 registered voters in Arizona, 682 registered voters in Georgia, and 682 registered voters in North Carolina from September 17 – 21. The margin of error in each state is between four and five percentage points: Plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, plus or minus 4.6 percentage points in Georgia, and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in North Carolina.