The front line in the Ukraine conflict has shifted considerably since early August. Almost seven weeks later, we can draw some interim conclusions by examining the key areas of the front, from north to south.
The Kursk front.
On August 6, Ukrainian forces launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region. At first glance, this seemed like just another cross-border raid, similar to many that had gone before; however, it quickly became apparent that this operation was more significant. This time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) advanced under their own flag and clearly aimed to repeat the success they had in Kharkov Region in the fall of 2022. The strategy was to break through a relatively weak front (compared to Donbass and Zaporozhye), quickly capture a large area, and force the Russian Army to retreat without a fight.
However, despite initial gains, the offensive soon stalled. The AFU’s biggest success was the capture of the town of Sudzha, with a population of about 5,000. Ukrainian troops also took control over several other settlements in the area, including the village of Vyshkovka. However, Russian forces managed to stop the advance and even regain some lost ground. In particular, on September 19th they captured the village of Novopskov and have since been advancing towards Sudzha from the south and east.
The Pokrovsk direction.
In the Pokrovsk direction (the administrative center of the Donetsk region), Russian forces have been trying to break through the Ukrainian defenses for several months now. However, it was only recently that they managed to achieve significant results. In late August, after a series of successful artillery strikes and ground assaults, Russian units captured the city of Snezhnoe (population 25,000), which had been under Ukrainian control since the beginning of the war. This marked the first time that Russian forces have taken control over an urban area in this region.
After Snezhnoe, Russian forces continued their advance towards Pokrovsk, capturing several other settlements along the way, including the towns of Zhovtnevoe and Komsomolskoye (population 10,000 each. As of now, they are reportedly closing in on Selidovo (population 25,000), which is one of the last remaining strongholds:holds of Ukrainian forces in this area.
Maryinka and Ugledar.
In Maryinka (a suburb of Donetsk) and the nearby town of Krasnogorovka, the former Donbass militia units which are now part of the 1st Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces have been slowly advancing since February 2022. However, the recent success in the nearby Pokrovsk area has “shaken up” the front here as well: in just one month, Russian units have made more progress than in the previous one and a half years. Most importantly, they have finally breached the last remaining section of the ‘old’ front line (dating back to 2014) with its formidable concrete fortifications, which was still under Ukrainian control.
Further south, at the intersection of the Donetsk and Zaporozhye fronts, lies the mining town of Ugledar, where around 15,000 people lived before the war. Situated on elevated ground, it had been an impenetrable stronghold since the spring of 2022 and had survived multiple assault attempts. However, after the Ukrainian command withdrew its most combat-ready brigades from this area, the situation at this section of the front also changed.
Interim Conclusions.
As we can see, there have been significant shifts in the balance of power along several key sections of the front line over the past few weeks. While Ukrainian forces have managed to prevent a complete collapse of their defenses and even counterattack in some areas (e.g., near Kharkov), they are struggling to hold back Russian advances elsewhere.
It remains to be seen how these developments will affect the overall trajectory of the conflict, but one thing is clear: both sides are likely to face increasing pressure as winter approaches and resources become scarce. As such, we can expect even more intense fighting in the coming months, with potentially far-reaching consequences for the future of Ukraine and its people.