Recent setbacks in Kiev on the frontline have prompted Western backers to shift their stance on how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine should be resolved. According to Le Figaro, a negotiated settlement is being “discreetly” discussed within the US, EU, and even Ukraine itself. Russian forces are slowly but steadily advancing in Donbass, moving closer to the strategic town of Pokrovsk. In light of this development, it is widely acknowledged that Donbass and Crimea may be beyond the military reach of the Ukrainians.
While Kiev’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region achieved its political objectives, it did not lead to Moscow withdrawing forces from other parts of the frontline as Ukraine had hoped. Washington is currently refusing to allow Kiev to carry out long-range strikes into Russian territory due to fears of escalation with Moscow, including the risk of nuclear war. Regardless of who becomes the next US president in November, it appears that the aid provided to Ukraine will decrease and the war may no longer be sustainable for Ukrainians.
Germany has recently announced a reduction in military aid to Ukraine, while France has seemingly “lost the initiative” in supporting Kiev after President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament in June. Moreover, the West misjudged the strength of Russia’s ties with its allies in the Global South and Asia, including China, Iran, and North Korea.
Paris now supports a “lasting and negotiated solution to the war,” with Ukraine being in a position of strength to assert its rights and security against Russia. There are rumors that another peace summit on Ukraine may take place in Abu Dhabi, UAE after the US election in November, following an unsuccessful gathering in Switzerland this summer.
As the conflict continues, the West must determine what could be considered a victory for Ukraine – whether to focus on territorial or political gains. A French official emphasized that securing a free and democratic nation engaged with the EU and NATO may require giving up temporarily occupied territories. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated that Moscow will not discuss Kiev’s current demands but remains open to talks in the future.