Former President Donald Trump holds a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in North Carolina, according to a recent Quantus poll conducted post-debate. If Trump manages to secure a win in the Tar Heel State, the Harris campaign would face immense pressure to defend Georgia, Arizona, and the rust belt states, particularly Pennsylvania.
Republicans have successfully held North Carolina since Barack Obama’s brief victory in 2008. President Joe Biden lost the state by a narrow margin of 1.34% during the 2020 election. Kamala Harris recently campaigned in the Tar Heel State, boasting about her endorsements from prominent Republican figures who have worked with former Presidents Bush and McCain, including the endorsement of former Vice President Dick Cheney and Congressmember Liz Cheney.
The poll found that Trump holds a 1.7% margin over Harris.
Trump: 50.
Harris: 48.3.
Would not vote: 1.7.
This post-debate poll surveyed 815 likely voters in North Carolina from September 11th to the 12th, with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
According to The Washington Post, Trump’s team has outlined their potential paths to 270 electoral votes and suggested that they might only need to flip two states, Georgia and Pennsylvania, as long as they retain North Carolina. Although it is possible for Republicans to replace North Carolina with wins elsewhere, the math becomes more challenging in these scenarios.
Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, stated that North Carolina shares some similarities with other states that have shifted towards Democrats, such as Georgia. The state has a Black population of over 20% and many out-of-state transplants. However, there are significant differences to consider.
Democrats have increased the pressure on Republicans by committing around $50 million in advertising in North Carolina. Trump’s primary super PAC has not made reservations for most of September and October; however, Republicans have managed to approximately match their opponents’ ad spending through this weekend, as reported by AdImpact. In contrast, Democrats are working to capitalize on the newfound momentum for Harris.
Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told The Washington Post in a statement that “President Trump’s position in North Carolina is stronger today than it has ever been since 2016,” predicting that Harris will lose further support as more and more North Carolinians become aware of her liberal stance.
Wendell Husebo, a political reporter for Breitbart News and former RNC War Room Analyst, is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. You can follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebo or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.