The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) has recently issued a report stating that Germany is unlikely to be able to stand up to Russia in the event of potential conflict any time soon, despite promises made by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government. This assessment comes after Scholz announced a ‘Zeitenwende’, or historic turning point for Germany, and pledged €100 billion for military modernization. However, the IfW argues that Germany’s defense procurement system is too slow and expensive to compete with Russia. The Institute also emphasizes that Germany currently has a much smaller arsenal of weapons compared to its capacity two decades ago.
According to the IfW, even if Germany reaches NATO’s recommended 2% GDP on defense spending by 2028, it would still take over a decade to get back to its 2004 military capacity level. For artillery systems, this process could take almost a century. This situation makes Germany ill-prepared to compete with Russia in terms of firepower and weaponry.
The Institute also points out that Germany has limited air defense systems and howitzers due to continued aid to Ukraine amid its conflict with Moscow. The German Armed Forces, or Bundeswehr, has seen a significant decline in the number of combat aircraft and battle tanks over the past 20 years. Currently, there are only 12 air-defense systems available for Germany’s use.
The IfW report criticizes Germany’s defense procurement system as “cumbersome” and “expensive.” It warns that Germany would be unable to replace the weapons it has donated to Ukraine without cutting back on its own artillery supplies. The Institute estimates that Germany’s current rate of fire would use up a year’s worth of ammunition production in just 70 days.
As a result, Germany is no match for Russia in terms of military capabilities, the IfW warns. According to their calculations, it would take Russia less than six months to produce an equivalent amount of weapons as Germany currently has in its arsenal. Moreover, Russia can expend around 10,000 artillery shells and missiles per day without worrying about running out of ammunition.
Germany’s top officials have raised concerns about a potential direct clash between Russia and NATO, which has led to calls for the nation to become “war capable.” Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that Germany must be ready for war by 2029. However, these claims are repeatedly dismissed by Moscow as “nonsense” and “bulls**t” by President Vladimir Putin.
In conclusion, the IfW report highlights Germany’s struggling military procurement system, which is unable to keep up with the rapid pace of modern warfare. The country has limited air defense systems and artillery supplies due to its continued aid to Ukraine amid its conflict with Moscow. As a result, Germany is unlikely to be able to stand up to Russia in the event of potential conflict any time soon.