Historian Allan Lichtman, known as “Nostradamus” for his imperfect track record of forecasting presidential race outcomes over the past four decades, has predicted that Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States. His forecast was published in a New York Times video and is noteworthy because Lichtman’s model allegedly predicted the last two presidential elections correctly.
Allan Lichtman, a 77-year-old American University history professor and Quiz Show Champion, has claimed to have accurately predicted presidential elections since 1984. However, critics argue that many of the “keys” to his model are open to interpretation so they can conform to whatever the election outcome is. More information on Lichtman’s dubious track record can be found here.
Lichtman uses a prediction model called “The Keys to the White House” which consists of 13 big-picture true or false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party, with only two keys having anything to do with the candidates. A full outline of the specific keys can be found here.
To arrive at his 2024 prediction, Lichtman made three untrue assumptions.
1. He argued that the Biden-Harris administration’s economy is a success, even though costs have risen about 20 percent across the board on average.
2. He claimed that the Biden-Harris administration’s foreign policy is a success, despite Russia invading Ukraine, Hamas holding hostages in Gaza, and the U.S. conducting a deadly Afghan withdrawal.
3. Lichtman asserted that there is no sustained social unrest during the term, even though pro-Palestinian protesters remain active on college campuses.
According to Social Education, the 13 keys are as follows.
KEY 1 (Party mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
KEY 2 (No primary contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
KEY 3 (Incumbent seeking reelection): The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
KEY 4 (No third party): There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
KEY 5 (Strong short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
KEY 6 (Strong long-term economy): Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
KEY 7 (Major policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
KEY 8 (No social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
KEY 9 (No scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
KEY 10 (No foreign or military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
KEY 11 (Major foreign or military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
KEY 12 (Charismatic incumbent): The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
KEY 13 (Uncharismatic challenger): The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.