The highly respected statistician, Nate Silver, revealed on Tuesday a forecast for the 2024 presidential election that suggests former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning are significantly higher than Vice President Kamala Harris’s. According to this recent update from Silver, Trump’s likelihood of securing victory is at an impressive 56.7 percent – the highest since July 31st. In contrast, the forecasted chance for Kamala Harris winning stands at 43 percent.
Interestingly, Forbes reported on Friday that betting markets have seen a surge in Trump’s favor despite recent polls indicating an advantage for Harris. This is attributed to the impact of former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to suspend his campaign and publicly endorse Trump. The boost in Trump’s prospects can be observed particularly amongst bookmakers in the week following Kennedy’s announcement of support for the former president and the termination of his own campaign.
Prior to these recent developments, it was Trump who was about two points behind Harris in the odds as per the data available after the Democratic National Convention (DNC. However, with the endorsement from Robert F. Kennedy Jr., bookmakers have begun to shift their predictions more favorably towards Trump. This turn of events presents an interesting landscape for the upcoming 2024 presidential election and the subsequent political climate in the United States.