Former President Donald Trump has taken a significant lead over incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, according to the latest polling from Democracy Institute. Trump now leads by three points nationally and by five points in the ten key battleground states that will determine who becomes the next president of the United States.
Daily Express US commissioned the poll, which revealed that Donald Trump is gaining momentum in these critical states. The data from Democracy Institute shows Republican Presidential hopeful Trump with a five-percentage point lead over Kamala Harris, at 50 percent to her 45 percent. The poll was conducted on August 28 and 29, surveying 1,000 likely voters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. A national poll was also conducted during the same period, surveying 1,200 likely voters.
While the timing of this poll may not reveal much, it is worth noting that only half of it was taken after Kamala’s disastrous CNN interview, and her recent attack on 13 Gold Star families is also not included in the results. The Democracy Institute poll is somewhat of an outlier, as other sources like Rasmussen have Trump up by two nationally, and Fox News has him up by one. In the RealClearPolitics average poll of national polls, Kamala enjoys a 1.9-point lead, which is significantly lower than both Hillary Clinton’s lead on this same day in 2016 (+3.9) and Joe Biden’s in 2020 (+7.
In the RealClearPolitics average poll of battleground state polls, Harris is only up by +0.2 percent, while the Democracy Institute poll shows Trump with a five-point lead, indicating a significant disparity. Interestingly, the Democracy Institute poll includes three states not covered in the RealClear average poll—Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia. One might assume that with these states included, Kamala would post an even wider lead than what is shown in the RealClear average. However, it seems that Trump’s popularity may be gaining ground in these states as well.
As the campaign season continues, with approximately 60 days remaining until the election, candidates’ internal polling will become increasingly important in determining their strategies and where they choose to focus their efforts. For example, Kamala is visiting New Hampshire today, while her running mate, Tim “Stolen Valor” Walz, is campaigning in Minnesota. These visits may suggest that both camps believe these states are still up for grabs, despite New Hampshire and Minnesota being considered safe Democratic strongholds thes.
Similarly, if Trump and his running mate JD Vance were to visit Ohio and Florida, it would indicate their belief that these states could also be in play. As the campaign trail continues to heat up, both sides will undoubtedly make strategic adjustments based on their internal polling data, as well as the evolving political landscape leading up to the election.