Republicans are poised to maintain their majority in the House and reclaim the majority in the Senate, as per Decision Desk HQ’s updated analysis of its 2024 election forecast. The outlook is grim for Democrats, who chose Vice President Kamala Harris over President Joe Biden as their nominee.
The positioning of candidates atop party tickets significantly impacts down-ballot races. For instance, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) reportedly expressed concern that Democrats might lose the House and Senate if Biden remained on the ticket. However, the last-minute change does not seem to be improving the Democrats’ odds.
According to Decision Desk HQ, Republicans have a 56% chance of retaining control over the House chamber, which is responsible for initiating revenue bills, impeaching judges and presidents, and electing a president in cases where there is no outright Electoral College victory. The Senate plays a crucial role as well, holding exclusive power to confirm presidential appointments, approve or reject treaties, and try cases of impeachment.
One reason Republicans have a higher chance of winning the Senate than maintaining control over the House is due to the 2024 electoral map. Democrats have more swing-state seats up for reelection compared to Republicans. This makes it necessary for the party to allocate more resources towards defending vulnerable seats rather than attacking Republican-held seats up for reelection.
A second reason Republicans face a lower likelihood of keeping the House is attributed to the reduced number of total battleground districts available, placing greater significance on fewer races. Experts believe population shifts among partisans and subsequent redistricting within those states have led to this overall decrease in swing districts.