In recent news, the Montana Republican Party has commissioned a Public Opinion Strategies poll which reveals that Trump-backed Montana Senate nominee Tim Sheehy (R) has secured a seven-point lead over Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT. According to the poll, 51 percent of the 500 likely voters sampled support Sheehy. This includes 43 percent who are “definitely” voting for him, while another 7 percent stated they would “probably” vote for him, and a final 1 percent expressed that they lean towards supporting him.
Jacob Rubashkin, the deputy editor of Inside Elections, commented on this poll in a post on X that the Montana GOP had sponsored it, leading to what he calls a “pretty bleak result for Jon Tester.” The poll shows Tester trailing behind Sheehy with only 44 percent of the response. This includes 40 percent who are “definitely” supporting him, and another 3 percent who probably will do so, as well as 1 percent that leans toward supporting him.
Meanwhile, Libertarian Sid Daoud garners two percent of the response while Green Party’s Michael Downey takes one percent. Sheehy has enjoyed a seven-point swing in just two months. A June POS/Montana GOP poll showed Tester and Sheehy locked at 46 percent apiece. Since then, Sheehy has gained five points of support, while Tester has lost two percent of backing.
Looking deeper into the results, the surge for Sheehy seems to be related to the top issues that Montanans are focusing on heading into the home stretch of the election. These include illegal immigration, inflation, and the cost of living, according to the responses from 39 percent of the respondents who chose these as their first or second most important issue. Inflation and the cost of living were chosen by 34 percent, making it the third most prevalent answer. Jobs and the economy took fourth place at 31 percent, followed by abortion at 28 percent.
The trend in Montana, a firmly red state, could pose significant trouble for Tester and Democrats’ efforts at large to hold on to a one-seat Senate majority. As it stands now, Republicans are poised to take Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I-WV) seat in West Virginia, with Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) given a 99 percent chance of winning by The Hill and Decision Desk Headquarters. In theory, this would put Republicans at 50 seats if they can hold onto all their seats, which is considered a strong possibility considering Democrats’ best flip opportunities are long shots in red Texas and Florida against Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL. A Sheehy win in Montana on top of this would give Republicans a one-seat majority, further solidifying their grip on the Senate. The GOP also has numerous other pickup opportunities in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, among others.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to 20 and has a margin of error of ± 4.38 percentage points.