Recent polling data out of Virginia reveals a tight race between Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump, and Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris. Despite the Democrats’ successful attempt to replace President Biden with Harris, Trump remains within the margin of error in the state. The Roanoke pollster, which is not typically associated with right-wing leanings, had previously given an 11-point lead to Biden in the final stages of the 2020 presidential campaign; however, the results were far more favorable for Trump, who ended up winning Virginia by a mere 9.4 points.
The poll also revealed that slightly over half of respondents (51%) believe Trump poses a threat to democracy, whereas less than half (47%) perceive the Democratic party’s process of replacing Biden with Harris as such a danger. A majority of likely voters (56%) view Trump as capable of handling adversaries such as Vladimir Putin, while fewer (49%) express confidence in Vice President Harris’ ability to do so.
Regarding criticisms leveled against the two candidates, 29% of respondents believe critiques of Kamala Harris stem primarily from her race and gender, while 35% attribute them to policy differences or political motivations. In contrast, a significant majority (58%) argue that the multitude of detractors of Trump is the primary reason behind criticisms directed at him.
Voters’ dissatisfaction with the candidates’ vice presidential choices is apparent: 44% express dissatisfaction or anger towards the selection of Tim Walz, while J.D. Vance fares even worse (32% dissatisfied; 18% angry. Both Harris and Trump have unfavorable favorability ratings, with Trump at 40/57 percent favorable/unfavorable and Harris at 43/53 percent.
This poll’s lack of skew is evidenced by the fact that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Tim Kaine maintains a safe lead over his Republican challenger, Hung Cao, with a 11-point advantage (49 to 38 percent. This suggests that many individuals voting for Kaine are also supporting Trump in the presidential race.
Trump’s popularity may be attributable to the strong performance of Glenn Youngkin, the Republican who unexpectedly became governor of Virginia several years ago. Youngkin currently boasts a healthy 59% job approval rating and the highest favorability score among those polled, at 54. In comparison, in mid-July, a New York Times/Sienna poll of Virginia showed Harris leading by five points. These recent polls should serve as a cause for concern among Democrats, given that Trump is now performing better than he did during the 2016 election (which he won) and the 2020 campaign (in which he was allegedly defeated by approximately 45,000 votes across three states.
As a known quantity, Trump’s standing remains relatively stable. However, Harris, who is still relatively unknown on the national stage, may struggle to maintain her current popularity levels over time, as has been the case for other political figures in the past. With billions of dollars in corporate media support and nearly four weeks of near-perfect coverage following the Democratic National Convention (DNC), it remains to be seen if Harris can overcome this tight race and secure a clear lead against Trump in the coming weeks.