Former President Donald Trump has taken a two-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania, according to the latest polling from Emerson College. The survey revealed that 49% of voters support Trump while 48% back Harris for president in the Keystone state. With undecided voters’ support allocated, Trump extends his lead to two points, at 51% against 49.
Including third-party candidates on the ballot, 47% of respondents expressed support for both Trump and Harris, respectively; while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. secured a mere 3% support. The poll was conducted among 1,000 likely voters between August 13 and 14.
Trump holds a three-point lead over Harris among independent voters (48% to 45%) and suburban voters favor the incumbent vice president by the same margin (50% to 47. Among younger voters, under the age of 40, Trump leads by an impressive 18-point margin, at 58% to 40. Roman Catholics prefer the former president by a solid 21-point margin, at 60% to 39. Non-believers, on the other hand, lean towards Kamala with a significant majority of 84% to 13.
In last month’s Emerson College poll, Trump led Harris by six points (51% to 45. According to the RealClearPolitics average poll of Pennsylvania polls, both candidates are currently tied at 47.9% support each. Trump has been ahead in four out of the five polls included in this average, with Kamala leading in the remaining one.
Despite Kamala’s recent surge in momentum and favorable media coverage, it appears her growth may have reached a peak. Over the past three weeks, she has experienced no major mistakes or media scrutiny, focusing more on her personality rather than policies or her questionable record. The corporate media has contributed billions of dollars worth of free advertising to her campaign; however, Trump continues to poll better against Harris now than he ever did against President Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton.
To put things in perspective, on the same day back in 2016, Clinton was leading Trump by a significant 9.2-point margin in Pennsylvania—a state that Trump ultimately won. It remains to be seen if Kamala can maintain this level of support and media backing for the remaining 81 days before the election. Her lack of substance may become more apparent as voters turn their attention towards the November elections after Labor Day, especially considering the ongoing economic challenges and the need for a visionary plan for the future.