Former President Donald Trump continues to dominate over Vice President Kamala Harris in various polls conducted in Florida. Despite the Democrats’ fervent hope of transforming the consistently red state into a contested battleground, polls have shown a consistent lead for Trump. A McLaughlin & Associates survey, which was conducted between August 6-8 among 800 voters, revealed Trump leading by eight percent, with 52 percent of respondents supporting him in a race that also included third-party candidates. Harris followed closely behind with 44 percent support. When third-party candidates were not factored in, Trump’s lead dropped to seven percent.
However, other surveys conducted in Florida have generated significant attention, as the establishment media outlets eagerly await any signs of a narrowing gap between the two potential contenders. A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV poll, which surveyed 500 likely voters within the state, showed Trump leading Harris by five percentage points – 47 percent to Harris’s 42 percent. The USA Today coverage of this poll emphasized that the red wave that had swept through Florida in recent years may not be as expansive as initially thought.
Another survey conducted by Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research revealed an even smaller gap between Trump and Harris, with Trump receiving support from half of respondents (50 percent) and Harris trailing by only three points with 47 percent support. This poll is reflective of the tightening political landscape in the Sunshine State.
To provide further context, during the 2016 presidential election, Trump won Florida against Hillary Clinton with a margin of just 1.3 percent. In the 2020 election, he secured a win over President Biden by a slightly larger margin of 3.3 percent. The current polls serve as a reminder of the close competition between the two parties in this state.
These recent polls come as Florida Republicans are celebrating their one million voter registration advantage over Democrats. This significant shift began in November 2021, when Republicans first surpassed Democrats in terms of voter registration – a milestone that had never been reached before in the state’s history. Six years ago, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by almost 300,000; however, today, the situation has changed drastically, with Republicans now leading their Democratic counterparts by one million registered voters.
This development occurred months after a scramble within the Biden campaign during the summer when his campaign chairwoman, Jen O’Malley Dillon, initially stated that she did not consider Florida a battleground state for Biden. However, shortly afterward, Dan Kanninen, the battleground states director for Biden, quickly rectified the statement by maintaining that “Florida is absolutely in play.
The evolving political landscape in Florida serves as a reminder of the dynamic nature of American politics and highlights the need for vigilance among both parties. As the 2024 presidential election approaches, it remains to be seen if Trump can maintain his lead or if Harris will succeed in closing the gap between them in the Sunshine State.