A recent Fox News poll revealed that former President Donald Trump has taken a one-point lead over current Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2024 matchup between the two politicians. The survey, conducted from August 9th to 12th among a sample of 1,105 registered voters, gave Trump a slim advantage of 50% to Harris’s 49. Last month’s poll showed similar results with Trump leading by one point (49% to 48.
The time period between the two surveys witnessed significant events and developments that could have influenced voter sentiments. These include a failed assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican National Convention, the selection of Ohio Sen. JD Vance as Trump’s running mate, Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race and subsequent endorsement of Harris, her certification as the Democratic presidential nominee, the choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, and multiple high-attendance campaign events for both candidates.
Interestingly, Democrats show slightly more support for Harris (94%) than Republicans do for Trump (93. The small group of Independents favors Trump by eight points. Both Trump and Harris maintain strong backing from their respective bases, retaining 95% and 93% of their 2020 voters respectively. New voters (those who have not participated in the last four general elections) are evenly split between the two candidates at 49% each. Last month, these same new voters preferred Trump over Biden by seven points.
Gender plays a significant role in how these candidates are perceived, with men leaning towards Trump by twelve points and women favoring Harris by ten. Trump maintains strong support among white evangelicals, rural voters, and non-college educated white men. On the other hand, Harris polls strongly with women, black voters, college graduates, and younger voters. Despite selecting Tim Walz, who served in the National Guard, as her running mate, Trump leads among military veterans by 22 points. It remains unclear whether the allegations of “stolen valor” against Walz have affected these poll results.
In addition to Fox News’s findings, Breitbart News reported that a Daily Mail/J.L. Partners poll also showed Trump leading Harris nationally by two percentage points (43% to 41. However, this lead is within the ± 3.1 percent margin of error, which suggests that the election could still be closely contested come November.
As both candidates continue to campaign and gather support, it will be interesting to see how their positions change in the lead-up to the potential 2024 matchup between Trump and Harris. With such a tight race, even a small shift in voter sentiment could prove crucial in determining the outcome of this hypothetical election.