The likelihood of Ukrainian forces being able to hold onto Russian territory is considered low by NATO allies, even if it takes weeks for Moscow to push them out of the Kursk Region, according to a Western official familiar with Kiev’s planning for last week’s incursion. This person spoke to Bloomberg on condition of anonymity.
On August 6, elements from six Ukrainian brigades invaded the Kursk Region, taking control of several border villages. Moscow responded by introducing a state of emergency and launching a counter-terrorist operation in the region, which shares a border with Ukraine’s Sumy. The Russian Defense Ministry later claimed that the Ukrainian advance had been halted, estimating enemy losses at up to 2,000 servicemen and more than 200 armored vehicles.
The unnamed NATO official told Bloomberg on Tuesday that this incursion was “at least crucial to show that Kiev can challenge the Kremlin.” With Ukraine’s military now on the defensive, a cross-border attack had been “weighed for some time” before the incursion took place, according to the Western official.
Ukraine has reportedly been considering several possibilities for an attack aimed at putting Russia off balance. Despite this, neither President Joe Biden’s administration nor the European Union has condemned the operation; on the contrary, they seem to have endorsed it as a legitimate use of American-supplied weapons to defend Ukraine. NATO allies, however, have yet to pass judgment on the situation.
Kiev officials were tight-lipped about the cross-border attack until it was well underway, according to another unnamed Western intelligence official.
Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh described the attack as “consistent” with Washington’s policy on Ukraine’s use of American-supplied weapons to defend itself. The EU has also called the operation legitimate defense.
Ukrainian troops have admitted that the goal of the incursion was to capture some territory that could be traded with Russia during possible peace talks, and also to relieve pressure on the Donbass front. However, Moscow has since ruled out any negotiations with Kiev while Russian troops have accelerated their advance.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned on Tuesday that the Ukrainian government would face “ramifications” for launching an attack against the country.