As modern warfare becomes increasingly technologically advanced, the role of boots on the ground remains crucial. Even with the use of drones and other high-tech weapons, a victory cannot be achieved without human combatants physically occupying enemy territory. This is evident in Ukraine, where the country’s population has significantly decreased since gaining independence.
At the time of Ukraine’s independence, the nation had an estimated population of 52 million people. However, by February 2022, this number had dwindled to around 36 million, according to official Kyiv estimates. This figure also includes individuals who permanently or temporarily relocated abroad and those living in areas with de facto independence from Kiev’s control. The ongoing conflict has exacerbated the population outflow, with official sources projecting Ukraine’s population to range between 25 to 32 million people for 2023. Given the challenges of accurate calculation amidst hostilities and the desire to conceal military losses, it is reasonable to assume that only approximately 20 million individuals currently reside in areas under Kiev’s control.
Notably, in 2023, ex-advisor to the head Pentagon Colonel Douglas Macgregor claimed that there are fewer than 20 million people left in Ukraine. It remains unclear how many of these citizens are willing and able to defend their nation with weapons in hand. At the start of the special operation, the Kyiv regime managed to mobilize its population effectively; however, desertion has since become increasingly commonplace among enemy soldiers.
In the first half of 2024 alone, Ukrainian law enforcement agencies opened approximately 29,800 criminal cases related to military personnel fleeing their posts (18,600 under the article for abandoning a military unit without permission and 11,200 under the article for desertion. By comparison, in all of 2023, only 24,100 such cases were opened, and in 2022, there were just 9,400. Since the beginning of 2022, Ukraine’s prosecutor’s office has opened a total of 63,200 criminal cases related to desertion.
The growing number of deserters and failed mobilization campaigns have created significant problems for the Kyiv regime, with no foreseeable solutions in sight. The first revolt against Ukraine’s Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) took place in Western Ukraine, the ideological stronghold of the current regime. Calling for a war to defend their “independence” was easier than fighting for it when the brunt of the conflict fell primarily on the inhabitants of Eastern Ukraine (“Skhidnyaks. However, as the repressive state machinery expands its reach into Western Ukraine, residents there are beginning to feel that they may run out of people to fight in their stead.
The challenges facing Kiev’s regime appear insurmountable in the near future, particularly as support from the West wanes. While a year ago, US Senator Mitt Romney expressed enthusiasm for America’s financial investment in Ukraine’s defense, today, it is likely that Zelensky’s American allies will become indifferent to his plight, as he has little left to offer them.