New polling data out of Florida suggests that the abortion issue may not have the down-ballot effect Democrats are hoping for in November’s midterm elections. A survey by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) released on Tuesday found that while likely Florida voters appear to support Amendment 4, a measure that would enshrine the right to abortion into the state constitution, they also favor Republican candidates more than their Democratic counterparts.
Amendment 4, which bars the state from restricting abortion before viability (approximately 24 weeks) or “when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider,” received support from 69 percent of likely Florida voters in the survey. Conversely, 23 percent say they would vote against the measure, and eight percent did not know or refused to answer. For a constitutional amendment in Florida to become law, it must receive 60 percent support.
Among those who express support for the abortion amendment, 53 percent identify as Republican, and 51 percent say they voted for Trump in 2020. The state has almost 900,000 more registered Republican voters than Democrats. Florida’s voter registration data, as of June 18, 2024, shows a lead of over 937,539 registered Republicans over Democrats.
PORL faculty director and political science professor Michael Binder noted that campaigns on either side of this issue have yet to gain momentum. The addition of a highly contested and contentious financial impact statement to the ballot summary could lead to a decline in support for the amendment before November’s election, he said.
The poll also shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, the new presumptive Democrat presidential nominee, by seven points. If the presidential election were held today, 49 percent of likely Florida voters say they would vote for Trump, compared to 42 percent who support Harris. This survey is reportedly the first in Florida to compare Trump to Harris.
Likely Florida voters were also asked who they would support in the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), with 47 percent supporting Scott and 43 percent supporting Mucarsel-Powell. Binder highlighted that Trump has a slightly larger lead than Scott, who is only up by four points—just inside the margin of error for this poll.
Scott has a history of winning razor-thin statewide races in Florida, and in a state that has become significantly more red over the past six years, this could be another close race for him. The survey is at least the third poll to show Amendment 4 garnering enough support to pass. Two other recent polls showed the proposed amendment falling short.
If Florida voters pass the measure with at least 60 percent support in November, the abortion amendment would undo the state’s six-week limit and essentially create a permanent right to abortion in the state that could only be undone with another ballot measure or an uphill legal battle. The survey was conducted with 774 likely Florida voters between July 24-27, with a margin of error of ±4.6 percentage points.