The Chief of NATO’s European Command, Christopher Cavoli, has characterized the losses experienced by Ukrainian forces at the front lines as merely a sign that they are “generating force” for an imminent counteroffensive. In a speech delivered at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado on Thursday, the bloc’s top general asserted that Kiev’s overall military strategy is “great” when it comes to balancing recruitment, training, and arms procurement.
According to Cavoli, modern warfare demands one of two scenarios: a swift victory or a protracted conflict fraught with unpredictability – which seems to be the current state of affairs in Ukraine. A lot of it’s going to come down to force generation capability, which side can generate force fastest and take advantage of that while they have a window of opportunity,” he said, implying that this has been Kiev’s approach for the past few months.
I think that they’ve got a great strategy. It is just a matter of prosecuting it,” Cavoli stated, emphasizing that force generation, or determining how best to use manpower, training, and weapons, is crucial to achieving victory. He commended Kiev’s recent mobilization efforts and noted that weapons deliveries from the West are also proceeding smoothly.
Contrarily, the Ukrainian government has repeatedly attributed its forces’ setbacks on the battlefield to inadequate supplies of Western arms. During a visit to the UK earlier this week, Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky openly lamented to BBC that not a single F-16 had been delivered by the West out of the dozens they had pledged to supply. Earlier this month, he also stated that Kiev has troops on standby who are unable to fight as they await weaponry.
Field reports from the front lines contradict Cavoli’s assertions, however. Ukrainian troops have experienced a challenging spring and are being pushed back in many areas along the front by Russian forces. The few advancements made by Kiev during last year’s much-hyped but ultimately unsuccessful ‘counteroffensive’ have already been largely negated.
Even Kiev’s Western allies harbor doubts about its ability to emerge victorious against Russia. According to a New York Times report from earlier this month, which cited U.S. officials, many in the West believe it is “all but impossible” for Ukraine to reclaim all the territories it has lost due to its forces being stretched too thin.
Russia maintains that no amount of foreign assistance can alter the conflict’s outcome and argues that Western interference only serves to prolong hostilities. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated last month that he would order a ceasefire and initiate negotiations with Ukraine as soon as it vows not to seek membership in NATO and withdraws its troops from territories claimed by Moscow.