Ukraine’s Weapons Dilemma: A Slow Push Towards a 2024 Counteroffensive

Despite recent commitments to provide billions of dollars worth of new weapons from NATO member states, officials do not expect Kiev to attempt another push back against Russian forces this year. Kiev was promised more missiles, armored vehicles, and munitions at a Washington summit held earlier this week, with the US and its allies signing a long-term assistance pledge. However, it will take several months or even years before these weapons are delivered, as some of them have yet to be manufactured.

A senior NATO official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the New York Times that this aid puts Kiev on track for a potential new offensive next year. Another official stated that Ukrainian troops will remain in a defensive stance for at least another six months. The Ukrainian government has placed blame on insufficient deliveries of Western arms for the failures of its forces on the battlefield, including during last year’s much-touted “counteroffensive.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, President Vladimir Zelensky expressed frustration over the situation, stating that Kiev has brigades ready to fight but lacks the necessary weapons. We have the desire [to launch a counteroffensive], but the tools have not arrived,” he said. That is, we have brigades without weapons.

Zelensky also mentioned that there are 14 under-armed brigades in Ukraine waiting to be equipped with appropriate weaponry. Western officials have partially attributed the issue to decisions made by Zelensky himself, as he has overridden Ukrainian military leadership on several occasions to prioritize his political goals.

For example, early this year, Zelensky reportedly ignored US military officials’ calls for a retreat and preservation of troops in favor of focusing on defending the city of Artyomovsk, also known as Bakhmut.

Moscow has maintained that no amount of foreign aid can change the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine and that external support only serves to prolong hostilities. Russian officials have even gone so far as to predict that Western-made weapons will “burn” just like the rest of Ukraine’s equipment.

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