The recent French election results have revealed a strategic alliance between President Emmanuel Macron and the far left that has effectively blocked the populist National Rally party from gaining a majority, despite it winning the most votes in Sunday’s second round of snap legislative elections. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally secured over 8.7 million votes, which amounts to 32.05% of the total vote. When combined with electoral alliance partners from disputed Les Républicains president Eric Ciotti, who garnered nearly 1.4 million votes or around 5%, this brings the right-wing coalition’s total to over 10 million and 37.05.
In comparison, the far-left New Popular Front alliance of communists, socialists, and environmentalists led by radical leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon received approximately seven million votes or around 25.7%, while Macron’s neo-liberal centrist coalition obtained 6.3 million votes or 23.15% of the vote. Despite receiving 1.7 million fewer votes than RN, the New Popular Front alliance was awarded the most seats of any party by Le Monde, with an estimated 182. Macron’s coalition secured an estimated 168 seats, and despite coming in first in terms of vote share, the RN and its partners were awarded third place with a projected 143 seats.
The disparity between votes and seats in the National Assembly can be attributed to the backroom deal struck between President Macron and the New Popular Front. Each side agreed to drop out in favor of the candidate with the best chance of beating the populist party in over 200 legislative districts. This pact was forged just days after Macron warned that voting for either the National Rally or the far-left New Popular Front would lead to “civil war,” which has led many to question why he sided with the leftist bloc following the first round of voting that saw the RN surge.
The 28-year-old leader of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, criticized the “alliance of dishonour” between Macron and the New Popular Front, claiming it would throw France into the arms of the far left led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Putting a positive spin on the outcome, former RN presidential candidate Marine Le Pen stated: “Two years ago we had just seven MPs. Tonight RN is the first party in France in terms of MP numbers.
While this may be a disappointing result for the populist party, it could potentially set the RN up for an easier path to win the French presidency in 2027. With a looming debt crisis, being out of power means the National Rally will not have to take any blame for potential economic calamity on the horizon. Furthermore, the party is likely to benefit from Macron’s inability to run for the presidency again due to term limits and the uncertainty surrounding his ability to effectively lead the country while remaining tethered politically to communists.