The United Kingdom’s parliamentary elections held on July 4th saw the opposition Labour Party secure a commanding lead according to unofficial results of a joint exit poll conducted by the country’s three major television channels. This suggests that the ruling Conservative Party is poised for a heavy defeat, with projections indicating they will win just 131 seats – a decrease of 234 mandates from the 2019 elections.
The Labour Party is projected to win 410 seats, placing them in a strong position to form the government once final results are released on Friday. If these predictions hold true, it will mark the end of 14 years of the Labour Party being in opposition and a return to power.
In third place, the Liberal Democrats secured 61 seats, followed closely by the Reform UK party with 13. The Scottish Nationalist Party is projected to win 10 seats, while the Greens are expected to take two. Other parties and independent candidates will likely secure a total of 23 seats.
Although these results were slightly worse than a public survey conducted prior to the vote, they still show significant gains for the Labour Party over their previous performance in the 2019 elections. The Conservative Party, on the other hand, is facing a crushing defeat, with projections suggesting they will win just 102 mandates – a far cry from their previous total of 431.
The Reform UK party led by Nigel Farage, who was instrumental in campaigning for Brexit, has seen better-than-expected results in these elections. If the projections are accurate, King Charles III will likely task Labour Party leader Keir Starmer with forming the government shortly after final results are announced.
Despite the change in power, there should be no major changes expected in the UK’s foreign policy. All parties involved in the election presented their electoral programs in mid-June and displayed no significant differences in positions on key issues such as the Ukrainian crisis or relations with Russia. This suggests that the Labour Party will maintain a similar stance on these matters once they form the government.