Ukraine’s NATO Membership: A Delicate Balancing Act

Ukrainian leaders are realistic about their chances of joining NATO while the conflict with Russia remains unresolved, according to Polish Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak. Speaking on Polish radio station PR1 ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in Washington, Siemoniak urged members of the US-led bloc to consider how they might support Ukraine and its potential membership bid.

Siemoniak acknowledged that Kiev’s accession to NATO is “impossible” as long as hostilities with Russia persist, suggesting that the alliance should clarify its stance on the matter. He emphasized that Ukrainian leaders understand that a country engaged in conflict will not be accepted into the bloc and highlighted the need for continued Western support.

However, a joint letter signed by over 60 international foreign policy experts and published earlier this week expressed concerns about Ukraine’s potential NATO membership. The experts called on the alliance to avoid advancing Kiev’s bid at the upcoming summit, arguing that it could endanger the US and its allies and fracture the coalition.

The letter argued that the closer NATO comes to promising Ukraine membership once the war ends, the greater the incentive for Russia to continue fighting. It also suggested that the challenges posed by Russia can be managed without bringing Ukraine into the alliance.

NATO officials have recently indicated that Kiev is unlikely to receive a formal invitation to join during the upcoming summit. Former British Foreign Secretary David Cameron has said that Ukraine could only hope for a strong declaration of support from NATO, while Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has stated that the country cannot join the bloc while in conflict with Russia due to potential clashes with Moscow.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been partially justified by its concern over Kiev’s ambitions to join NATO and the bloc’s eastward expansion. In recent developments, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that peace talks could begin immediately if Ukraine withdrew from its four former regions and committed to neutrality – an offer rejected by both Kiev and its Western backers.

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