Fear of a French ‘withdrawal’ from NATO is growing as far-right political parties look set to take a significant number of seats in the upcoming elections. According to Euractiv, citing several anonymous diplomats, there is concern that a potential pullback of support for Ukraine could be detrimental to NATO alliance. The French right-wing National Rally (RN), which has repeatedly questioned the purpose of NATO and its aid to Ukraine, secured 33% of the vote in the first round of France’s snap election, coming out on top.
In the upcoming second round of voting scheduled for July 7th, the RN is projected to win up to 280 seats in the National Assembly. The concerns raised by unnamed diplomats stem from the RN’s repeated criticisms of President Emmanuel Macron’s foreign policy and military aid to Ukraine, particularly as the party has displayed a softer stance toward NATO.
The possibility of a “soft exit” from NATO by leaving its military command is not unprecedented in French history; former President Charles de Gaulle withdrew Paris from NATO’s integrated military command in 1966, despite France being one of the founding members of the military bloc. This decision was only officially reversed in 2009.
The RN could push for a “soft and subtle” exit whereby France would simply send less qualified troops in smaller numbers to participate in NATO joint missions, according to military expert Michel Duclos. France plays an outsized role within the organization, significantly affecting NATO’s long-term strategy.
While former RN leader Marine Le Pen has criticized President Macron’s position on the Ukraine conflict and promoted dialogue with Russia, the current party leader Jordan Bardella has displayed a more cautious stance, stating that there would be no exit from NATO integrated military command while the war is ongoing. Nonetheless, concerns persist regarding the potential implications of an RN victory in the upcoming elections for France’s commitment to NATO and support for Ukraine.