The Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), a South Korean government-managed think tank, has issued a report urging the administration of President Yoon Suk-yeol to consider developing nuclear weapons in response to North Korea signing a mutual defense treaty with Russia. The INSS has recommended that the South Korean government conduct a comprehensive review of various alternatives for dealing with the potential threat from North Korea, including deploying tactical nuclear weapons, adopting NATO-style nuclear sharing, acquiring nuclear self-armament capabilities, and establishing potential nuclear capabilities.
Developing a nuclear weapons program would require significant changes to South Korea’s international relations as it is not currently a nuclear-armed state and is a signatory of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT. Additionally, developing a nuclear weapons arsenal would necessitate extensive and prolonged discussions with the United States, which maintains a military presence in South Korea as part of the still ongoing Korean War. The active hostilities ended with an armistice in 1953, but neither side has surrendered or signed a peace treaty.
Public opinion polls consistently show that developing nuclear weapons is popular among South Koreans, with many expressing concern about their country’s vulnerability to North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. President Yoon Suk-yeol has suggested that South Korea could deploy tactical nuclear weapons or possess its own nukes, a proposal that has raised alarm within the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden.
The INSS report cites concerns about North Korea’s status as a nuclear state becoming more likely over time, especially following Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un in June 2023, where the two signed a treaty that requires either side to engage militarily if one of their countries is attacked.
The South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo has published an opinion column embracing the suggestion of developing nuclear weapons, noting that it is rare for national policy research institutes in the country to mention independent nuclear armament and the acquisition of reprocessing rights. The newspaper argues that current international conditions make it difficult for South Korea to rely solely on the U.S. nuclear umbrella and that possessing nuclear weapons under mutual agreement could benefit the United States’ strategic interests in the Western Pacific.
Public opinion surveys conducted by Gallup Korea indicate that a large majority of South Koreans support nuclear armament, with 72.8 percent believing their country should develop nuclear weapons. Notably, about 60 percent of respondents said they do not believe the United States would use nuclear weapons to defend South Korea from a Northern attack, and over 90 percent said they do not believe it is possible to denuclearize North Korea at all.
While President Yoon has only mentioned the possibility of nuclearizing once, in January 2023, following Kim Jong-un’s public call for an “exponential increase” in the size of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, his proposal has been met with concern by both domestic and international observers. The INSS report and Chosun Ilbo opinion piece suggest that further discussion on this issue is necessary to ensure South Korea’s security in the face of evolving threats from its neighbors.