In a surprising upset, Canadian Conservative candidate Don Stewart won a tight election in Toronto-St.Paul’s on Monday, securing a seat that has been held by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party for the past 30 years. Before the vote, a Conservative candidate hadn’t been competitive in Toronto–St. Paul’s since the 1980s, and the party had not won a seat in urban Toronto since the 2011 federal election. CBC News called the race a “nail-biter to the very end,” with Stewart’s Liberal opponent Leslie Church in the lead for about six out of seven hours of vote-counting. Stewart only took the lead when the final batch of votes was counted, vaulting to 42.1 percent over Church’s 40.5 percent. He won by a mere 590 votes. The Liberals had previously won the previous nine elections in the district by over 20 points each time.
The poor showing for the Liberals in a stronghold like Toronto-St. Paul’s could prompt some soul-searching for Trudeau, whose popularity has plummeted amid inflation, the cost of living crisis, and concerns about crime. The upset win for Stewart might signal a shift in public opinion and an opportunity for Conservatives to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction with the current government.
Several factors could have contributed to this surprising victory for the Conservative party. Firstly, public discontent with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s handling of various issues may have swayed undecided voters in Toronto-St. Paul’s. Additionally, Jewish voters in the district, who make up about ten percent of the electorate, might have been drawn to Stewart’s strong support for Israel and his condemnation of anti-Semitic incidents.
Stewart also campaigned on supporting Poilievre as prime minister-in-waiting and promised to advance his legislative agenda. Poilievre campaigned alongside Stewart, praising him as a “common-sense Conservative” who understands that Canadians are “sick of a government that taxes food, punishes work, doubles housing costs, and unleashes crime and chaos in the community.
As Conservatives celebrate their victory in Toronto-St. Paul’s, some political analysts predict increased pressure on Trudeau to resign before the next election. National Post columnist Tasha Kheiriddin saluted Stewart as a “giant-killer” and predicted that the pressure on Trudeau to step down would grow intense. However, she also cautioned that Conservatives should be careful not to rely too heavily on their opposition to Trudeau, as popular sentiment could shift again in the future.