Former President Donald Trump is ahead of current President Joe Biden among independents in New York State, according to a recent survey conducted by Siena College. The study revealed that the overall approval rating for Biden was negative, with only 42% favoring him while 53% viewed him unfavorably – resulting in a net negative favorable rating of -11. In May, these figures were slightly more favorable for Biden, with 45% expressing a positive view compared to 50% who had an unfavorable opinion. This equated to a net negative rating of -5. However, in the last month, his net unfavorable rating increased by six percentage points.
Siena College found that Trump’s job approval rating has also fallen slightly from 46-51% last month to 45-53. His favorability rating has dropped from 39-56% in May to 37-59.
In a hypothetical matchup, Biden is ahead of Trump by only single digits in the Empire State with a lead of eight percentage points – 47% compared to Trump’s 39. In May, there was a nine-point difference between the two candidates, and ten points separated them in April.
The most striking revelation from the survey is Trump’s significant advantage among independents in New York State. He leads Biden with the support of 45% of these voters, compared to only 28% for the incumbent president – a +17-point advantage for the former president in the traditionally blue state.
While Joe Biden retains the support of three-quarters of Democrats, Trump has garnered backing from 85% of Republicans and leads Biden among independents with a score of 45-28. The Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg noted that a gender gap had reopened, with men supporting Trump 46-42% and women favoring Biden 51-33. White voters are evenly divided, while Biden holds a commanding lead among non-white voters. However, Trump receives support from 29% of Black voters and 26% of Latino voters.
The survey was conducted between June 12th and 17th among 805 registered voters in New York State, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1. The results come after Trump’s historic rally in neighboring New Jersey, which attracted more than 100,000 people, followed by another notable event in the Bronx where the crowd chanted “We love Trump!” and “Four more years. This indicates a growing trend of support for the former president that could pose challenges to the Democrats.