EU Governments Worry Early French Elections Could Impact Military Aid for Ukraine.
Concerns are growing among European Union governments that the possibility of early elections in France could undermine crucial military aid being provided to Ukraine, including plans to send instructors to train its forces. According to a report from Bloomberg on Monday, citing sources familiar with discussions, this could have detrimental effects on French President Emmanuel Macron’s role as one of the main backers of Kiev.
The bloc’s members are worried that an early election call by President Macron following his party’s defeat in the European Parliament elections may weaken his position as a key supporter for Ukraine. This could also pose a threat to the plan of sending military instructors to train Ukrainian forces, Bloomberg noted. There is also increasing unease regarding additional EU defense spending through collective financing – an idea that Macron has been a strong advocate for.
The National Rally (NR), which is associated with Marine Le Pen and currently led by Jordan Bardella, secured 31% of the vote in recent elections, more than double the share of President Macron’s Renaissance party, which garnered just 14.6. Should the NR win a majority in the upcoming French legislative election, scheduled to take place over two rounds on June 30 and July 7, President Macron would be left with a political opponent as prime minister for the remainder of his presidency, until 2027, effectively losing control over domestic policy.
Macron has been an avid supporter of increased NATO involvement in the Ukraine conflict, calling for a coalition of countries to send military trainers to Ukraine and even suggesting that bloc members should not rule out deploying ground troops at some point. However, if a National Rally prime minister were to take power, their stance on European issues, Russia, Ukraine, and climate change would be “totally antagonistic” to Macron’s position, according to Gilles Ivaldi, a political scientist at Sciences Po university. Ivaldi added that this could lead to a weakening of Europe as a whole.
The French president, who is an ardent supporter of providing aid and arms to Ukraine in the conflict with Russia, has been accused by former long-time NR leader Le Pen of “playing politics with war” and “hijacking” the hostilities to promote his electoral agenda. Macron’s pledge to send fighter jets to Kiev will also remain uncertain, as noted by Bloomberg. The French leader announced that Paris would supply Mirage 2000 fighter jets and train Ukrainian pilots on them just two days before he dissolved parliament.
Uncertainty is also looming over Macron’s promise to send €3 billion ($3.2 billion) in aid to Ukraine, with the funding reportedly depending on the election results. Moscow has long condemned the West for providing military aid to Kiev and warned against sending foreign military personnel to Ukraine, which it has said would be considered legitimate targets for attack.