Former President Donald Trump has surged ahead of President Joe Biden in a hypothetical five-way presidential race in Arizona, according to an AARP/ Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research poll. The survey reveals that Trump currently holds an impressive eight-point lead over his rival, garnering 45 percent support among likely Arizona voters. In comparison, Biden secures second place with 37 percent of the response.
Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. follows closely behind with 11 percent, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver register at three and zero percent respectively. The poll also notes that four percent of the 600 likely voter respondents remain undecided.
Furthermore, when focusing on a sample of 800 likely voters aged 50 and above, Trump holds an even more substantial lead over Biden with a score of 52 percent to 43 percent. This poll was conducted both before and after Trump’s conviction in the Manhattan business records case on May 30th, with field dates spanning from May 28th to June 4th, 2024. The margin of error for this survey stands at ± four percent for the 600 likely voters and ± 3.5 percent for the strictly 50 and up sample.
In a two-way race between Trump and Biden among respondents aged 18 years or older, Trump maintains a strong lead with 50 percent support compared to Biden’s 44 percent. Four percent of respondents remain undecided, while two percent express support for “someone else.” In both the deeper field and two-way race, Trump holds a six-point advantage with independents.
Arizona is one of several swing states that have played a crucial role in determining the outcomes of the past two presidential elections. The Grand Canyon state voted red for Trump in 2016 by a narrow margin of 3.5 percentage points over twice-failed Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. However, in 2020, it flipped to blue for Biden, who secured a victory by just three-tenths of a percentage point. In that election, Trump received 49.06 percent of the vote share compared to Biden’s 49.36 percent.
The poor approval rating for Biden and Trump’s strong approval rating in this survey suggest that voters have become increasingly disillusioned with the current president throughout his term. Just 36 percent of respondents give Biden positive marks, while a staggering 62 percent disapprove of his performance. In contrast, a majority of 53 percent report their approval of Trump’s tenure as president between 2017 and 2021, whereas 46 percent express disapproval.