Former President Donald Trump has narrowed the gap between him and current President Joe Biden in the traditionally Democratic state of Minnesota, according to a recent Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 poll. The survey, published on Monday, revealed that Biden holds a slim lead with 45% of support among likely voters in a potential three-way race involving Trump and independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr., who garnered 6. Trump secured 41% of the response, just outside the ±3.5 percentage point margin of error.
The four-point difference between Trump and Biden highlights Trump’s competitive edge in a state that has consistently voted blue for the past 50 years. In the 2016 election, Trump nearly won Minnesota by losing to then-Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton by just 1.5 percentage points.
Biden’s lead over Trump is primarily attributed to a significant advantage in Hennepin and Ramsey counties. These regions encompass parts of Minneapolis and St. Paul, respectively. However, Trump holds a lead in other areas, including the Twin Cities region where he was up 12 percentage points.
While Biden leads in this poll, it reveals that Trump supporters are considerably more enthusiastic about their candidate than Biden’s supporters are for him. A majority of 62% of Trump supporters reported feeling “very” enthusiastic about supporting the former president, while another 21% were “somewhat” enthusiastic.
On the other hand, only 31% of Biden supporters described themselves as “very” enthusiastic about him, with 36% being “somewhat” enthusiastic. About a third of Biden voters said they were either “not very” enthusiastic (28%) or not excited at all (5%) to support him. In comparison, only 18% of Trump backers felt similarly about their candidate, with 14% being “not very” enthusiastic and 4% being “not at all.
The poll sampled 800 likely voters in Minnesota between June 3rd and 5th. It comes amidst growing concerns for President Biden, as many Democrats are unhappy with his handling of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. This dissatisfaction has been observed in the uncommitted movement, which saw nearly one in five Democratic primary voters in Minnesota cast protest votes against Biden by choosing the “uncommitted” option on March 15th.
The uncommitted movement is composed of Muslims, Arab-Americans, young voters, and far-left progressives who have continued to express their discontent with Biden’s actions throughout other Democratic nominating contests. The threat looms that these voters may abstain from voting in the general election, jeopardizing President Biden’s reelection prospects not only in Minnesota but also in key swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Brandon Nelson, an undecided voter who disapproves of the U.S.’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict, emphasizes that he is unlikely to back any of the top three candidates due to this ongoing issue.