The conviction of former President Donald Trump on 34 felony counts in New York has not significantly changed the minds of voters regarding the 2024 presidential election, according to recent polls. While the former president’s popularity has slightly decreased in at least one national poll, his support has increased in three states, including critical battlegrounds like Arizona and Nevada.
According to a June 6 average of polls by FiveThirtyEight, Former President Trump held a 1.2 percent lead one week after the trial verdict, while RealClearPolitics reported a 0.5 percent lead. The poll concluded that Trump’s national popularity had fallen by about 2 percent but he still maintained a 1 percent lead over current President Joe Biden. Out of those who supported Trump before his trial, 93% continued to do so after the verdict. Of the remaining 7%, 3% now support President Biden and 4% are undecided. Approximately 20% of those who said they no longer support Trump were double-haters, meaning that they strongly dislike both candidates.
Pollster Neil Newhouse told The Epoch Times, “I’m hard-pressed to find any evidence in the polls that the conviction has made much of a difference at all in the public, in the presidential ballot test.” He also noted that for those swayed by the trial, the effect could be short-lived.
President Biden and Former President Trump will face off in their first presidential debate on June 27, with a second debate scheduled for September 10. These debates are more likely to impact undecided voters than any of Trump’s criminal trials. Polls from June 1-4 revealed that the former president’s recent conviction in his New York trial “does not matter” according to 65% of Nevada voters and 63% of Arizona voters.
As of June 6, Trump led President Biden in both states by 5 percentage points, which is about the same margin as when the trial began. In 2020, President Biden won Arizona by 0.4%, Nevada by 2.4%, and Virginia by more than 10. This apparent shift should be a concern for President Biden, according to political science professor Patricia Crouse at The University of New Haven in Connecticut.
Given these percentages, the party that draws the most independent voters usually wins. However, this may not hold true this year because the number of truly undecided voters appears to be relatively small while so-called “double haters” abound.
Newhouse also stated, “I don’t believe there are that many persuadable voters out there. I think the turnout is going to be lower because people are frustrated with their choices.” Both major candidates have seen sizable protest votes in the ongoing primary elections even though they clinched their respective parties’ nominations months ago.
Former President Trump urged voters to participate in a town hall meeting on June 6 in Phoenix, stating that “We have to get the evangelicals. We have to get the gun owners. We have to get these people to vote. And if they vote, nobody can beat us.” The Republican Party has embraced voting by mail this year in the states where it’s allowed, a change from 2020 when Democrats capitalized on mail-in voting while Republicans discouraged it.
Despite many voters being dissatisfied with both candidates and the direction of the country, they are more likely to vote. Jimmy Lee of Susquehanna Polling told The Epoch Times that “all the polling we’ve done shows between 5 and 10 percent of the electorate claims they’re still undecided,” adding that he believes the election will be decided by those late-breaking undecided voters, as the race is expected to be razor-tight in most battleground states.